Value of tax benefits of a dynamic debt policy with regime switching

The article presents a method for valuation of stochastic future income with three barriers: a default barrier, a pre-default barrier and a refinancing barrier. Between the pre-default and default barriers, there is an ongoing cost of financial distress. In this framework, we derive state-dependent present value factors that can be applied to problems of valuation of firms, optimal financial structure and mitigation of agency conflicts between managers and investors. We illustrate our method with an analysis of the value of tax benefits of a dynamic debt policy.     

The ‘China’ question in mobile Internet standard-making: Insights from expert interviews

This article explores the actions of Chinese stakeholders as norm entrepreneurs in mobile Internet standard-making within the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP). Through semi-structured interviews with key experts from the Internet stakeholder communities, this article contextualises a rapidly transforming and increasingly politicised issue in the broader context of China's engagement with the global multistakeholder Internet governance architecture, as well as the debate on China's rise in the Liberal International Order. Furthermore, it incorporates the views and experiences of technologists working first-hand in standard-making, as they are often disregarded in political-scientific literature. Through the analytical lens of cognitivist regime theory, this article argues that the stronger China and Chinese stakeholders grow economically and politically, the more they become involved in the existing Internet governance regime complex, increasing their influence in the existing institutional arrangements without necessarily acting for changing their norms, rules, and principles. Through these theoretical and methodological approaches, new light is shed on the role of private and public Chinese stakeholders and on the relation between them.     

Forecasting realised volatility: a Markov switching approach with time‐varying transition probabilities

This paper introduces a markov‐switching heterogeneous autoregressive (MS‐HAR) model with time‐varying transition probabilities (TVTP) for the realised volatility of Shanghai securities composite index returns. Its various extensions have been obtained by including negative returns outside trading hours in addition to the leverage effects and trading volume. The findings show asymmetries in the impact of explanatory variables on the realised volatility. Moreover, the out‐of‐sample results show that the benchmark MS‐HAR with TVTP model and its extensions consistently outperform the simple HAR model, MS‐HAR model with constant transition probabilities (CTP) and their extensions. These results are robust to alternative realised measurements, and have economic implications.     

Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem

This paper investigates whether a regime switching model of stochastic lumber prices is better for the analysis of optimal harvesting problems in forestry than a more traditional single regime model. Prices of lumber derivatives are used to calibrate a regime switching model, with each of two regimes characterized by a different mean reverting process. A single regime, mean reverting process is also calibrated. The value of a representative stand of trees and optimal harvesting prices are determined by specifying a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Variational Inequality, which is solved for both pricing models using a implicit finite difference approach. The regime switching model is found to more closely match the behavior of futures prices than the single regime model. In addition, analysis of a tree harvesting problem indicates significant differences in terms of land value and optimal harvest thresholds between the regime switching and single regime models.     

国家金融安全的杠杆──发展中国家汇率制度的选择

世界金融一体化已成为二十一世纪主要经济特征,并强烈的影响着发展中国家的金融政策,关乎国家金融安全,而选择适当的汇率制度则是解决这一问题的杠杆。本文从时间和空间两个角度出发,历史地比较地分析了发展中国家汇率制度的选择要素、内在结构及其战略取向。     

Endogenous uncertainty and market volatility

We advance the theory that the distribution of beliefs in the market is the most important propagation mechanism of economic volatility. Our model is based on the theory of Rational Beliefs (RB) and Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) developed by Kurz (1994, 1997). We argue that the diverse market puzzles which are examined, such as the equity premium puzzle, are all driven by the structure of market expectations. In support of our view, we present an RBE model with which we study financial markets. The model is able to simulate the correct order of magnitude of: (i) the long term mean and standard deviation of the price\dividend ratio; (ii) the long term mean and standard deviation of the risky rate of return on equities; (iii) the long term mean and standard deviation of the riskless rate; (iv) the long term mean equity premium. In addition, the model predicts (v) the GARCH property of risky asset returns; (vi) the observed pattern of the predictability of long returns on assets, and (vii) the Forward Discount Bias in foreign exchange markets. The common economic explanation for these phenomena is the existence of heterogenous agents with diverse but correlated beliefs such that some agents are optimistic and some pessimistic about future capital gains. The model has a unique parameterization under which the model makes all the above predictions simultaneously. The parameterization requires the optimists to be in the majority but the rationality of belief conditions of the RBE require the pessimists to have a higher intensity level. In simple terms, the large equity premium and the low equilibrium riskless rate are the result of the fact that at any moment of time there are agents who hold extreme pessimistic beliefs and they have a relatively stronger impact on the market. The paper also studies the effect of correlation of beliefs among investors. It shows that the main effect of such correlation is on the dynamic patterns of asset prices and returns and is hence important for studying such phenomena as stochastic volatility. Received: May 16, 2000; revised version: November 15, 2000     

从比较法的角度谈中国食品安全监管机构的完善

美国、日本、欧盟是世界上公认食品最安全的国家和地区,其进行食品监管的模式一直以政府监管为主,怎么进行监管机构的设置就是需要重点研究的问题。立足于美国、欧盟、日本食品监管机构的设置,讨论我国如何完善食品安全监管机构,通过比较各发达国家机构设置不同得出结论:发达国家食品安全监管机构设置模式分为集中型和分散型,而我国的特有国情导致我国要建立以品种划分的分散型监管模式;风险分析的方法是各国食品安全监管机构采取的食品安全监管的重要手段,风险评估与风险管理的职能由不同的监管机构承担,各监管机关在风险交流的基础上细化各自的职责,注重部门间的协调和统一的组织,能够使食品安全监管机构发挥更大的作用;另外,必须要加重监管机关的责任。     

关于中国“通缩出口”论的真伪性检验

本文根据国际贸易中价格传递效应的理论 ,通过考察中、日、美三国间进出口价格的相互影响来检验是否存在所谓中国“通缩出口”的现象。为了使检验结果更具有统计意义上的稳健性 (Robustness) ,论文除了保留自己前期研究方法上的特色以外 ,还根据结构变化检验 (ChowTest)的结果 ,将上述这些方法分阶段运用 ,同时 ,又进一步利用体系转换模型 (RegimeSwitchingModel)来考察受货币政策影响的三种价格环境的制约作用。另外 ,对冲击反应函数 (VMA)又做了因素确定的方差分解 (VarianceDecomposition) ,从而使得价格传递效应的动态特征被揭示得更为明显和更为充分。最后 ,文章得出了两个重要的政策含义 :首先 ,中国“通缩出口”论是基于传统的“支出转移效应”的宏观分析视角 ,忽略了进出口企业的定价能力 (PTM)等微观要素 ,所以 ,这种主张不符合现实情况。其次 ,一国可以通过稳定国内的物价环境来制约汇率和外国价格的传递效应 (Taylor’sRule) ,这一点在美国表现得尤为突出。     

通货膨胀不确定性及其对宏观经济的影响

利用马尔科夫范式转换模型分析了1985年1月到2009年7月我国通货膨胀的状态转换特征,并考察了与之伴随的不确定性及其对我国主要宏观经济变量的影响,发现通货膨胀不确定性仅对消费波动有显著影响,对投资和净出口的影响不显著,且方差不确定性和均值不确定性分别导致了消费波动增大与减小.通货膨胀不确定性凸显了宏观调控的重要性,积极、有效、透明的政策能够减少消费所面临的不确定性,保证居民消费的稳定和可持续增长,将有助于扩大内需,促进我国经济增长.     

我国失地农民问题研究综述

如何解决和处理好失地农民问题已经变得越来越重要，学术界对此给予大量关注。文章对国内众多学者关于失地农民问题的研究进行了详细的梳理、归纳，并在此基础上，稍作评论。